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Feasibility of forecasting future critical care bed availability using bed management data.

Authors :
Palmer J
Manataki A
Moss L
Neilson A
Lo TM
Source :
BMJ health & care informatics [BMJ Health Care Inform] 2024 Aug 19; Vol. 31 (1). Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 19.
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

Objectives: This project aims to determine the feasibility of predicting future critical care bed availability using data-driven computational forecast modelling and routinely collected hospital bed management data.<br />Methods: In this proof-of-concept, single-centre data informatics feasibility study, regression-based and classification data science techniques were applied retrospectively to prospectively collect routine hospital-wide bed management data to forecast critical care bed capacity. The availability of at least one critical care bed was forecasted using a forecast horizon of 1, 7 and 14 days in advance.<br />Results: We demonstrated for the first time the feasibility of forecasting critical care bed capacity without requiring detailed patient-level data using only routinely collected hospital bed management data and interpretable models. Predictive performance for bed availability 1 day in the future was better than 14 days (mean absolute error 1.33 vs 1.61 and area under the curve 0.78 vs 0.73, respectively). By analysing feature importance, we demonstrated that the models relied mainly on critical care and temporal data rather than data from other wards in the hospital.<br />Discussion: Our data-driven forecasting tool only required hospital bed management data to forecast critical care bed availability. This novel approach means no patient-sensitive data are required in the modelling and warrants further work to refine this approach in future bed availability forecast in other hospital wards.<br />Conclusions: Data-driven critical care bed availability prediction was possible. Further investigations into its utility in multicentre critical care settings or in other clinical settings are warranted.<br />Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.<br /> (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2632-1009
Volume :
31
Issue :
1
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
BMJ health & care informatics
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
39160082
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci-2024-101096