Annual-perennial lifespan variation in Chaenactis douglasii suggests a drought escape strategy in warm-arid environments.

Premise: Intraspecific variation in drought resistance traits, such as drought escape, appear to be frequent within wild, ruderal forb species. Understanding how these traits are arrayed across the landscape, particularly in association with climate, is critical to developing forbs for wildland restoration programs. Use of forbs is requisite for maintaining biological diversity and ecological services.
Methods: Using 6074 greenhouse-grown Chaenactis douglasii seedlings from 95 wild, seed-sourced populations across the western United States, we recorded bolting phenology and estimated genome size using flow cytometry. Mixed-effects regression models were used to assess whether climate of seed origin was predictive for bolting phenology and genome size.
Results: Variation in bolting, reflecting an annual vs. perennial lifespan in this species, was observed in 8.7% of the plants, with bolting plants disproportionately occurring in locations with warm, arid climates. Populations with increasing heat and aridity were positively correlated with observed bolting (r = 0.61, p < 0.0001). About one-third (22%) of the total (61%) lifespan variation was attributed to seed source climate and annual heat moisture index, a measure of aridity. Genome size had no significant effect on bolting. Projected climate modeling for mid-century (2041-2070) supports an increasing occurrence of annual lifespan.
Conclusions: Our analyses support a drought escape, bet-hedging strategy in C. douglasii. Populations exposed to greater aridity exhibited a higher proportion of individuals with an annual lifespan. Drought escape leading to an annual lifespan can affect how seeds are propagated and deployed for climate-informed restoration.
(Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)