Diagnostic Validation of the Updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk II for Acute Kidney Injury Prediction Model in Pediatric Septic Shock.

Objectives: We previously derived the updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk for Acute Kidney Injury (PERSEVERE-II AKI) prediction model, which had robust diagnostic test characteristics for severe AKI on day 3 (D3 severe AKI) of septic shock. We now sought to validate this model in an independent cohort of children to the one in which the model was developed.
Design: A secondary analysis of a multicenter, prospective, observational study carried out from January 2019 to December 2022.
Setting: Ten PICUs in the United States.
Patients: Children with septic shock 1 week to 18 years old admitted to the PICU.
Interventions: None.
Measurements and Main Results: Seventy-nine of 363 patients (22%) had D3 severe AKI, defined as Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes stage 2 or higher. Patients were assigned a probability of D3 severe AKI using the PERSEVERE-II AKI model. The model predicted D3 severe AKI with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85-0.93), sensitivity of 77% (95% CI, 66-86%), specificity of 88% (95% CI, 84-92%), positive predictive value of 65% (95% CI, 54-74%), and negative predictive value of 93% (95% CI, 89-96%). These data represent an increase in post-test probability of D3 severe AKI with a positive test from 22% to 65%, and a prevalence threshold of 28%. On multivariable regression, the PERSEVERE-II AKI prediction model demonstrated greater adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for D3 severe AKI (aOR, 11.2; 95% CI, 4.9-25.3) and lesser aOR for failure of D3 renal recovery from early AKI (aOR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.69).
Conclusions: The PERSEVERE-II AKI model demonstrates consistently robust performance for prediction of new or persistent D3 severe AKI in children with septic shock. A major limitation is that actual D3 severe AKI prevalence is below the prevalence threshold for the test, and thus future work should focus on evaluating use in enriched populations.
Competing Interests: Dr. Stanski’s institution received funding from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS); she disclosed that they hold a provisional patent for the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk for Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) Prediction Model. Drs. Stanski, Cvijanovich, Fitzgerald, Thomas, Weiss, Atreya, Lautz, and Kaplan received support for article research from the National Institutes of Health. Dr. Cvijanovich’s institution received funding from the Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, the Nationwide Children’s Hospital, the Boston Children’s Hospital, and the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Dr. Fitzgerald received funding from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (K23DK119463, P50DK114786) and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Health Cure Grant. Dr. Jain received funding from AltaThera Pharmaceuticals. Dr. Lautz received funding from the NIGMS (K08GM148957-01, R21GM150093-01, and L40GM134527-03). Dr. Atreya’s institution received funding from the Cincinnati Children’s Research Foundation; he disclosed that they hold a provisional patent for the integrated PERSEVERE and endothelial biomarker risk model to predict sepsis-associted acute kidney injury (PERSEVEREnce SA-AKI model); and he received funding through the Procter K to R Scholar program awarded by the Cincinnati Children’s Research Foundation and the NIGMS (R21GM151703 and R21GM15009). Dr. Weiss received funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD102396, R01HD101528) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (75D30123C17693). Dr. Zingarelli’s institution received funding from the NIGMS (R01 GM115973, R21 GM151734, 1R21GM150093, and R01GM145698); she received funding from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01 HL141229); and she disclosed that they are editor of the Shock journal. The remaining authors have disclosed that they do not have any potential conflicts of interest.
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