Machine learning predicts conventional imaging metastasis-free survival (MFS) for oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) using prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET radiomics.

Purpose: This study investigated imaging biomarkers derived from PSMA-PET acquired pre- and post-metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) to predict 2-year metastasis-free survival (MFS), which provides valuable early response assessment to improve patient outcomes.
Materials/methods: An international cohort of 117 oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) patients, comprising 34 from John Hopkins Hospital (JHH) and 83 from Baskent University (BU), were treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) MDT with both pre- and post-MDT PSMA-PET/CT scans acquired. PET radiomic features were analyzed from a CT-PET fusion defined gross tumor volume ((GTV) or zone 1), and a 5 mm expansion ring area outside the GTV (zone 2). A total of 1748 PET radiomic features were extracted from these zones. The six most significant features selected using the Chi2 method, along with five clinical parameters (age, Gleason score, number of total lesions, untreated lesions, and pre-MDT prostate-specific antigen (PSA)) were extracted as inputs to the models. Various machine learning models, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Naïve Bayesian, were employed for 2-year MFS prediction and tested using leave-one-out and cross-institution validation.
Results: Six radiomic features, including Total Energy, Entropy, and Standard Deviation from pre-PSMA-PET zone 1, Total Energy and Contrast from post-PSMA-PET zone 1, and Entropy from pre-PSMA-PET zone 2, along with five clinical parameters were selected for predicting 2-year MFS. In a leave-one-out test with all the patients, random forest achieved an accuracy of 80 % and an AUC of 0.82 in predicting 2-year MFS. In cross-institution validation, the model correctly predicted 2-year MFS events with an accuracy of 75 % and an AUC of 0.77 for patients from JHH, and an accuracy of 78 % and an AUC of 0.80 for BU patients, respectively.
Conclusion: Our study demonstrated the promise of using pre- and post-MDT PSMA-PET-based imaging biomarkers for MFS prediction for omCSPC patients.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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