Low-grade Urothelial Carcinoma Recurs at a Tempo that Naturally Accelerates Over Time.

Objective: To investigate the cadence of recurrence in patients with low grade intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (LG IR-NMIBC) based on clinical determinants. We aim to describe patterns in rates of recurrence to better inform surveillance regimens for this chronic, burdensome, and costly disease.
Methods: Using baseline and follow-up data from participants in the West Midlands' (United Kingdom, UK) Bladder Cancer Prognosis Programme (BCPP), we assessed overall recurrence rate and recurrence-free intervals throughout the follow-up period for IR-NMIBC participants. Recurrence-free intervals were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.
Results: We identified 379 patients with G1/G2 pTa tumors classified as intermediate risk. Median age was 70 and 284/379 (75%) were male. The median follow-up time was 4.2 years (95% CI: 3.9-4.8). After 5 years of follow-up, 53% of patients had at least one recurrence. One-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 75% and 4-year RFS was 50%. The median time to or between 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th sequential recurrences was 49, 19, 12, 14, and 10 months, respectively.
Conclusion: Over half of patients with IR-NMIBC are destined to recur. Our data suggest that a subset of patients experience acceleration of recurrence over time and that this acceleration may serve as a potential kinetic biomarker for these individuals that could inform surveillance intervals and future treatment strategies.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Dr. Alexander Sankin is a paid consultant to Ambu Inc; Nicholas D. James has contributed to advisory boards for Merck USA and Pierre Fabre; Richard Bryan is a paid consultant to Cystotech ApS (Denmark), an unpaid charity trustee for Action Bladder Cancer UK, and has research funded by grants from Cancer Research UK and Janssen. The remaining authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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