National Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential from Adopting Anaerobic Digestion on Large-Scale Dairy Farms in the United States.

Waste-to-energy systems can provide a functional demonstration of the economic and environmental benefits of circularity, innovation, and reimagining existing systems. This study offers a robust quantification of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential of the adoption of anaerobic digestion (AD) technology on applicable large-scale dairy farms in the contiguous United States. GHG reduction estimates were developed through a robust life cycle modeling framework paired with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Twenty dairy configurations were modeled to capture important differences in housing and manure management practices, applicable AD technologies, regional climates, storage cleanout schedules, and methods of land application. Monte Carlo results for the 90% confidence interval illustrate the potential for AD adoption to reduce GHG emissions from the large-scale dairy industry by 2.45-3.52 MMT of CO ₂ -eq per year considering biogas use only in renewable natural gas programs and as much as 4.53-6.46 MMT of CO ₂ -eq per year with combined heat and power as an additional biogas use case. At the farm level, AD technology may reduce GHG emissions from manure management systems by 58.1-79.8% depending on the region. Discussion focuses on regional differences in GHG emissions from manure management strategies and the challenges and opportunities surrounding AD adoption.