Statistical Methods for Comparing Predictive Values in Medical Diagnosis.

Evaluating the performance of a binary diagnostic test, including artificial intelligence classification algorithms, involves measuring sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Particularly when comparing the performance of two diagnostic tests applied on the same set of patients, these metrics are crucial for identifying the more accurate test. However, comparing predictive values presents statistical challenges because their denominators depend on the test outcomes, unlike the comparison of sensitivities and specificities. This paper reviews existing methods for comparing predictive values and proposes using the permutation test. The permutation test is an intuitive, non-parametric method suitable for datasets with small sample sizes. We demonstrate each method using a dataset from MRI and combined modality of mammography and ultrasound in diagnosing breast cancer.
Competing Interests: Seo Young Park, who holds the respective position of Statistical Consultant of the Korean Journal of Radiology, was not involved in the editorial evaluation or decision to publish this article. The remaining authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
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