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Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change.

Authors :
Harifidy RZ
Hiroshi I
Harivelo RZM
Jun M
Kazuyoshi S
Keiichi M
Source :
Water research [Water Res] 2024 Jun 15; Vol. 257, pp. 121711. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 01.
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

The Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM) play a crucial role in providing water to the Malagasy population as well as the ecosystem. Little is known about the impact of climate change on these basins, and it is not clear what factors have the most significant impact on them. There are two central objectives of this study: 1. To assess the future potential water available for daily life and agriculture use across the MRBM. 2. To compare the projected change within the MRBM with the historical trends analysis and identify the water-stressed basins. In this paper, a new method for assessing the future available Intra-basin water resources combined with the impacts of climate change, land use, and population is proposed. Three imbalance indicators are introduced to quantify the spatial availability (indicator N°1), distribution (indicator N°2), and variability (indicator N°3) of the Potential Water Resources (PWR) available and have been applied to the MRBM. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, results showed a decreasing trend of the PWR in most of the basins by 2050 with a rise in evapotranspiration and a decline in precipitation. The increasing trend and uneven distribution of the population and agricultural land upstream/downstream are found to cause the reduction of the PWR available per capita (by 37 %) and agriculture area (by 69 %) across the MRBM. This study predicts water scarcity for most of the basins by 2050, especially in the Mangoro and Onilahy Basins. Upstream populations are expected to grow in Mahajamba, Mahavavy, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins, along with an expansion of the downstream agricultural land in Sofia, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Mangoky, and Mandrare basins. These findings enhance the cause-effect relationship between climate change, land use change, population growth, and water scarcity in the MRBM. Urgent action is therefore needed for an efficient and sustainable management of these water-stressed basins.<br />Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1879-2448
Volume :
257
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
Water research
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
38723356
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.121711