Transition from Acute to Chronic Low Back Pain in a Community-Based Cohort.

The transition from acute to chronic low back pain (LBP) in community settings has yet to be well understood. We recruited n=131 participants with acute LBP from the community and followed them for 3 and 6-month outcomes. Acute LBP was defined by a duration of < 4 weeks, and participants must have reported a 30-day LBP-free period before the current acute episode. Chronic LBP was defined as pain most or every day over the past 3 months. Baseline psychological, social, and demographic factors were examined as predictors of transition to chronic LBP at 3 months or continuation of chronic LBP at 6 months. The transition from acute to chronic LBP at 3 months was 32.2% ( 38/118). At 6 months, 80.7% (25/111) of participants who transitioned at 3 months continued to have chronic LBP. At 6 months, participants who identified as Black or African American were more likely than white participants to transition to chronic LBP (RR=1.76, 95% CI 1.05, 2.95) and more likely to continue to have chronic LBP (RR=2.19, 95% CI 1.14, 4.21). Those classified at baseline by both LBP most or every day and intensity of at least 30/100 were more likely to transition to chronic LBP (RR=3.13, 95% CI 1.84, 5.30) and continue to have chronic LBP at 6 months (RR=2.58, 95% CI 1.43, 4.16). The STarT Back Screening Tool and the OSPRO-YF were associated with the transition to chronic LBP at 3 months and continuation at 6 months. Participants with higher PROMIS General Health and PROMIS Physical Health scores were less likely to transition to chronic LBP or continue to have chronic LBP at 6 months. These findings identify factors of acute LBP in the community that may predict the transition to chronic LBP. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings and better understand the mechanisms driving the transition to chronic LBP.