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Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis.

Authors :
Musa SS
Zhao S
Abdulrashid I
Qureshi S
Colubri A
He D
Source :
Infectious Disease Modelling [Infect Dis Model] 2024 Mar 11; Vol. 9 (2), pp. 601-617. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 11 (Print Publication: 2024).
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation , from non-pharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.<br />Competing Interests: DH is an associate editor of the journal but has no role in the review process. Another editorial board member handles the manuscript. All other authors declared no conflict of interest.<br /> (© 2024 The Authors.)

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2468-0427
Volume :
9
Issue :
2
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
Infectious Disease Modelling
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
38558958
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.011