Changes in Wolf Occupancy and Feeding Habits in the Northern Apennines: Results of Long-Term Predator-Prey Monitoring.

The comprehension of the factors that have influenced the recent changes in wolf ( Canis lupus ) range and diet that have occurred in our study area, characterized by a highly heterogeneous landscape, can shed light on their current process of expansion toward the plain. Wolf presence was monitored using a standardized protocol from 2007 to 2022 by carrying out eight monitoring sessions organized in seasonal surveys, during which, we collected wolf presence data. To model wolf range dynamics, we used dynamic occupancy models considering land cover types and wild ungulate abundances as covariates. Moreover, we studied the wolf diet through scat analysis, identifying the consumed items from undigested remains. Wolf occupancy in the study area progressed from mountains to lower hills gradually; the observed range dynamics were driven by prey abundance and human presence: in particular, the probability of colonization increased with roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus ) abundance, whereas the probability of extinction increased with urban areas. The wolf diet showed a gradual shift from the prevalent consumption of wild boar (2007-2008 and 2011-2012) to the prevalent consumption of roe deer (continuously increasing from 2015 onward). Our results might be related to a specific adaptation of the predator to the local ecology of the most consumed species: the roe deer.