Response of spring yield dynamics to climate change across altitude gradient and varied hydrogeological conditions.

Springs offer insights into groundwater dynamics. Long-term monitoring of spring yields can reflect the response of groundwater storage to climate change. We analyzed the yield trends of 136 springs across 18 hydrogeological regions in Czechia from 1971 to 2020. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and linear mixed-effects models were used to assess environmental impacts on spring yields. Overall, 71 % of the springs showed no long-term trends, 28 % exhibited decreasing trends, and 1.5 % showed increasing trends in annual spring yields. Altitude has been demonstrated as a contributing factor influencing spring responses to climate change. Lowland springs (<300 m a.s.l.) exhibited the highest proportion of decreasing annual trends (41 %), while uplands (300-600 m a.s.l.) and highlands (>600 m a.s.l.) showed declines in 26 % and 25 % of springs, respectively. Moreover, highlands recorded a 7 % yield increase, indicating a complex interplay between altitude and spring response to climatic factors. A strong positive correlation was found between precipitation and yields (p < 0.01), whereas temperature increases negatively affected spring yields (p < 0.01). The interaction between temperature changes and region transmissivity highlighted the vulnerability of springs in low-transmissivity regions, predominantly those in crystalline and flysch bedrock areas, to climatic shifts. Generally, these regions have lower spring yields compared to the high-transmissivity areas of the Cretaceous basins. Although these lower-yield regions are not used as a primary water source for large areas, unlike regions with high-transmissivity bedrock, they provide water resources for local supply. Analysis of annual spring maxima frequencies revealed a shift in the culmination of maxima occurrences from April to March, with a significant decrease in April (p < 0.05) and May (p < 0.1) and an increase in March (p < 0.05), suggesting a change in spring yield seasonality. The 2015-2020 drought significantly accelerated declining spring yield trends across hydrogeological regions.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Ondrej Ledvinka reports financial support was provided by Technology Agency of the Czech Republic. Anna Lamacova reports financial support was provided by Technology Agency of the Czech Republic. Radek Vlnas reports financial support was provided by Technology Agency of the Czech Republic. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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