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Size thresholds for repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms warrant reconsideration.
- Source :
-
Journal of vascular surgery [J Vasc Surg] 2024 May; Vol. 79 (5), pp. 1069-1078.e8. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 21. - Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- Background: The historical size threshold for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is widely accepted to be 5.5 cm for men and 5.0 cm for women. However, contemporary AAA rupture risks may be lower than historical benchmarks, which has implications for when AAAs should be repaired. Our objective was to use contemporary AAA rupture rates to inform optimal size thresholds for AAA repair.<br />Methods: We used a Markov chain analysis to estimate life expectancy for patients with AAA. The primary outcome was AAA-related mortality. We estimated survival using Social Security Administration life tables and published contemporary AAA rupture estimates. For those undergoing repair, we modified survival estimates using data from the Vascular Quality Initiative and Medicare on complications, late rupture, and open conversion. We used this model to estimate the AAA repair size threshold that minimizes AAA-related mortality for 60-year-old average-health men and women. We performed a sensitivity analysis of poor-health patients and 70- and 80-year-old base cases.<br />Results: The annual risk of all-cause mortality under surveillance for a 60-year-old woman presenting with a 5.0 cm AAA using repair thresholds of 5.5 cm, 6.0 cm, 6.5 cm, and 7.0 cm was 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.7%, and 2.8%, respectively. The corresponding risk for a man was 2.3%, 2.9%, 3.3%, and 3.4% for the same repair thresholds, respectively. For a 60-year-old average-health woman, an AAA repair size of 6.1 cm was the optimal threshold to minimize AAA-related mortality. Life expectancy varied by <2 months for repair at sizes from 5.7 cm to 7.1 cm. For a 60-year-old average-health man, an AAA repair size of 6.9 cm was the optimal threshold to minimize AAA-related mortality. Life expectancy varied by <2 months for repair at sizes from 6.0 cm to 7.4 cm. Women in poor health, at various age strata, had optimal AAA repair size thresholds that were >6.5 cm, whereas men in poor health, at all ages, had optimal repair size thresholds that were >8.0 cm.<br />Conclusions: The optimal threshold for AAA repair is more nuanced than a discrete size. Specifically, there appears to be a range of AAA sizes for which repair is reasonable to minmized AAA-related mortality. Notably, they all are greater than current guideline recommendations. These findings would suggest that contemporary AAA size thresholds for repair should be reconsidered.<br /> (Copyright © 2024 Society for Vascular Surgery. All rights reserved.)
- Subjects :
- Male
Humans
Female
Aged
United States
Middle Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Medicare
Life Expectancy
Markov Chains
Risk Factors
Treatment Outcome
Retrospective Studies
Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal diagnostic imaging
Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal surgery
Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal complications
Aortic Rupture diagnostic imaging
Aortic Rupture etiology
Aortic Rupture prevention & control
Endovascular Procedures
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1097-6809
- Volume :
- 79
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Journal of vascular surgery
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 38262565
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvs.2024.01.017