"Losses disguised as wins" in electronic gambling machines contribute to win overestimation in a large online sample.

Introduction: Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) are a salient type of losing outcome common to electronic gambling machines (EGMs). These events occur when a gambling payout is less than the amount wagered (i.e., a net loss) but is nonetheless accompanied by the sounds and animations that accompany genuine wins. Previous lab-based studies have reported that participants tend to overestimate genuine wins when LDWs are present. This study reports an independent replication of these findings in a large online sample that included a substantial number of individuals reporting high-risk gambling and frequent EGM users.
Methods: This online study recruited a sample of 940 participants who were randomly assigned to view one of two brief videos. Each video displayed a short period of simulated online slot machine gambling and included 2 genuine wins and either 3 or 0 LDWs. Participants were asked to estimate the number of times a win occurred that was more than the amount bet . Participants also completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index.
Results: The mean estimated number of genuine wins was significantly larger for the condition displaying LDWs, 3.02 [95% CI = 2.82, 3.21] than the control condition, 2.14 [1.98, 2.30], t (887.66) = 6.78, d  = 0.44, p <.001.
Conclusions: We replicated the LDW-triggered win overestimation effect previously reported in lab-based experiments that have recruited smaller samples. This effect was robust in both low-risk and high-risk groups, indicating that even experienced gamblers remain susceptible. Exploratory modelling suggested only a minority of individuals were uninfluenced by LDWs.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest in relation to the publication of this article. None of the authors have knowingly received direct research funding from the gambling, tobacco, or alcohol industries, nor from any industry-sponsored organisation, or any other commercial entity that may stand to gain or lose financially through the publication of this manuscript. None of the authors have any personal financial interest in these industries. Dan Myles is supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program PhD Scholarship as well as a Gambling Research Capacity Grant from the New South Wales Office of Responsible Gambling. The New South Wales Department of Health Office of Responsible Gambling derive resources in part through hypothecated taxes on gambling revenue. Daniel Bennett has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the American-Australian Association, and the Monash-Warwick Alliance. Adrian Carter is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Career Development Fellowship and Monash University. Murat Yücel has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the Australian Research Council, the David Winston Turner Endowment Fund, and Monash University. He has also received funding from the law firms in relation to expert witness report/statement. Cassandra de Lacy-Vawdon was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program PhD Scholarship and a Monash Graduate Excellence Scholarship while undertaking this study. Charles Livingstone has received funding from the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the (former) Victorian Gambling Research Panel, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority (the funds for which were derived from hypothecation of gambling tax revenue to research purposes), from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, and from non-government organisations for research into multiple aspects of poker machine gambling, including regulatory reform, existing harm minimisation practices, and technical characteristics of gambling forms. He has received travel and co-operation grants from the Alberta Problem Gambling Research Institute, the Finnish Institute for Public Health, the Finnish Alcohol Research Foundation, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Committee, the Turkish Red Crescent Society, and the Problem Gambling Foundation of New Zealand. He was a Chief Investigator on an Australian Research Council funded project researching mechanisms of influence on government by the tobacco, alcohol, and gambling industries. He has undertaken consultancy research for local governments and non-government organisations in Australia and the UK seeking to restrict or reduce the concentration of poker machines and gambling impacts and was a member of the Australian government's Ministerial Expert Advisory Group on Gambling in 2010-11. He is a member of the Lancet Public Health Commission into gambling, and of the World Health Organisation expert group on gambling and gambling harm.
(© 2023 The Authors.)