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Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US.
- Source :
-
Epidemics [Epidemics] 2024 Mar; Vol. 46, pp. 100736. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 18. - Publication Year :
- 2024
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Abstract
- Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.<br />Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1878-0067
- Volume :
- 46
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Epidemics
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 38118274
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736