Predicting the potential nationwide distribution of the snail vector, Oncomelania hupensis quadrasi, in the Philippines using the MaxEnt algorithm.

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern affecting approximately 12 million people in the Philippines due to inadequate information about the disease and limited prevention and control efforts. Schistosoma japonicum, one of the causative agents of the disease, requires an amphibious snail Oncomelania hupensis quadrasi (O. h. quadrasi) to complete its life cycle. Using the geographical information system (GIS) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, this study aims to predict the potential high-risk habitats of O. h. quadrasi driven by environmental factors in the Philippines. Based on the bioclimatic determinants, a very high-performance model was generated (AUC = 0.907), with the mean temperature of the driest quarter (25.3%) contributing significantly to the prevalence of O. h. quadrasi. Also, the snail vector has a high focal distribution, preferring areas with a pronounced wet season and high precipitation throughout the year. However, the findings provided evidence for snail adaptation to different environmental conditions. High suitability of snail habitats was found in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Davao del Norte, North Cotabato, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Zamboanga del Sur. Furthermore, snail habitat establishment includes natural and man-made waterlogged areas, with the progression of global warming and climate change predicted to be drivers of increasing schistosomiasis transmission zones in the country.
(© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)