Co-drivers of Air Pollutant and CO 2 Emissions from On-Road Transportation in China 2010-2020.

Co-controlling the emissions of air pollutants and CO ₂ from automobiles is crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate change in China. Here, we analyze the synergetic characteristics of air pollutant and CO ₂ emissions from China's on-road transportation and identify the co-drivers influencing these trends. Using detailed emission inventories and employing index decomposition analysis, we found that despite notable progress in pollution control, minimizing on-road CO ₂ emissions remains a formidable task. Over 2010-2020, the estimated sectoral emissions of VOCs, NO _x , PM _2.5 , and CO declined by 49.9%, 25.9%, 75.2%, and 63.5%, respectively, while CO ₂ emissions increased by 46.1%. Light-duty passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks have been identified as the primary contributors to carbon-pollution co-emissions, highlighting the need for tailored policies. The driver analysis indicates that socioeconomic changes are primary drivers of emission growth, while policy controls, particularly advances in emission efficiency, can facilitate co-reductions. Regional disparities emphasize the need for policy refinement, including reducing dependency on fuel vehicles in the passenger subsector and prioritizing co-reduction strategies in high-emission provinces in the freight subsector. Overall, our study confirms the effectiveness of China's on-road control policies and provides valuable insights for future policy makers in China and other similarly positioned developing countries.