Optimal Screening for Predicting and Preventing the Risk of Heart Failure Among Adults With Diabetes Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Pooled Cohort Analysis.

Background: The optimal approach to identify individuals with diabetes who are at a high risk for developing heart failure (HF) to inform implementation of preventive therapies is unknown, especially in those without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).
Methods: Adults with diabetes and no HF at baseline from 7 community-based cohorts were included. Participants without ASCVD who were at high risk for developing HF were identified using 1-step screening strategies: risk score (WATCH-DM [Weight, Age, Hypertension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes Control, QRS Duration, MI, and CABG] ≥12), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ≥125 pg/mL), hs-cTn (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥14 ng/L; hs-cTnI ≥31 ng/L), and echocardiography-based diabetic cardiomyopathy (echo-DbCM; left atrial enlargement, left ventricular hypertrophy, or diastolic dysfunction). High-risk participants were also identified using 2-step screening strategies with a second test to identify residual risk among those deemed low risk by the first test: WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP/hs-cTn, NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM. Across screening strategies, the proportion of HF events identified, 5-year number needed to treat and number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor) among high-risk participants, and cost of screening were estimated.
Results: The initial study cohort included 6293 participants (48.2% women), of whom 77.7% without prevalent ASCVD were evaluated with different HF screening strategies. At 5-year follow-up, 6.2% of participants without ASCVD developed incident HF. The 5-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i among participants without ASCVD was 43 (95% CI, 29-72). In the cohort without ASCVD, high-risk participants identified using 1-step screening strategies had a low 5-year number needed to treat (22 for NT-proBNP to 37 for echo-DbCM). However, a substantial proportion of HF events occurred among participants identified as low risk using 1-step screening approaches (29% for echo-DbCM to 47% for hs-cTn). Two-step screening strategies captured most HF events (75-89%) in the high-risk subgroup with a comparable 5-year number needed to treat as the 1-step screening approaches (30-32). The 5-year number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event was similar across 2-step screening strategies (45-61). However, the number of tests and associated costs were lowest for WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP ($1061) compared with other 2-step screening strategies (NT-proBNP/hs-cTn: $2894; NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM: $16 358).
Conclusions: Selective NT-proBNP testing based on the WATCH-DM score efficiently identified a high-risk primary prevention population with diabetes expected to derive marked absolute benefits from SGLT2i to prevent HF.
Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr Patel has served as a consultant to Novo Nordisk. Dr Segar has received honoraria from Merck. Dr Klonoff has served as a consultant for Afon, Atropos Health, Better Therapeutics, Glucotrack, Lifecare, Novo, Samsung, and Thirdwayv. Dr Khan has received personal fees from Merck. Dr Lam has received research support from AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boston Scientific, and Roche Diagnostics; has served as a consultant or on advisory boards/steering committees/executive committees for Actelion, Alleviant Medical, Allysta, Amgen, ANaCardio AB, Applied Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, Cytokinetics, Darma, EchoNous, Impulse Dynamics, Ionis Pharmaceutical, Janssen Research and Development, Medscape, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Radcliffe Group, Roche Diagnostics, Sanofi, Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics, Us2.ai, and WebMD Global; and has served as cofounder and nonexecutive director of Us2.ai. Dr Verma holds a Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Cardiovascular Surgery; has received research grants and honoraria from Amarin, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, HLS Therapeutics, Janssen, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, PhaseBio, and Pfizer; has received honoraria from Sanofi, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and the Toronto Knowledge Translation Working Group; is a member of the scientific excellence committee of the EMPEROR-Reduced trial (Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction); has served as a national lead investigator of the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) and EMPEROR-Reduced trials; and is the president of the Canadian Medical and Surgical Knowledge Translation Research Group, a federally incorporated not-for-profit physician organization. Dr Nasir is on the advisory board of Amgen, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk, and his research is partly supported by the Jerold B. Katz Academy of Translational Research. Dr Butler has served as a consultant for Abbott, American Regent, Amgen, Applied Therapeutic, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardiac Dimension, Cardior, CVRx, Cytokinetics, Daxor Edwards, Element Science, Innolife, Impulse Dynamics, Imbria, Inventiva, Lexicon, Lilly, LivaNova, Janssen, Medtronics, Merck, Occlutech, Owkin, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Pharmacosmos, Pharmain, Prolaio, Roche, Secretome, Sequana, SQ Innovation, Tenex, and Vifor. Dr Vaduganathan is supported by the KL2/Catalyst Medical Research Investigator Training award from Harvard Catalyst (National Institutes of Health/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Award UL 1TR002541) and has served on advisory boards or has received research grant support from American Regent, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Baxter Healthcare, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cytokinetics, and Relypsa. Dr Pandey has received research support from the National Institute on Aging GEMSSTAR Grant (1R03AG067960-01) and the National Institute on Minority Health and Disparities (R01MD017529). Dr Pandey has received grant funding (to the institution) from Applied Therapeutics, Gilead Sciences, Ultromics, Myovista, and Roche; has served as a consultant for and/or has received honoraria outside of the present study as an advisor/consultant for Tricog Health Inc, Lilly USA, Rivus, Cytokinetics, Roche Diagnostics, Sarfez Therapeutics, Edwards Lifesciences, Merck, Bayer, Novo Nordisk, Alleviant, Axon Therapies; and has received nonfinancial support from Pfizer and Merck. Dr Pandey is also a consultant for Palomarin Inc with stocks compensation. The other authors report no conflicts.