Two-Year Prognostic Utility of Plasma p217+tau across the Alzheimer's Continuum.

Background: Plasma p217+tau has shown high concordance with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and positron emission tomography (PET) measures of amyloid-β (Aβ) and tau in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). However, its association with longitudinal cognition and comparative performance to PET Aβ and tau in predicting cognitive decline are unknown.
Objectives: To evaluate whether p217+tau can predict the rate of cognitive decline observed over two-year average follow-up and compare this to prediction based on Aβ (18F-NAV4694) and tau (18F-MK6240) PET. We also explored the sample size required to detect a 30% slowing in cognitive decline in a 2-year trial and selection test cost using p217+tau (pT+) as compared to PET Aβ (A+) and tau (T+) with and without p217+tau pre-screening.
Design: A prospective observational cohort study.
Setting: Participants of the Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing (AIBL) and Australian Dementia Network (ADNeT).
Participants: 153 cognitively unimpaired (CU) and 50 cognitively impaired (CI) individuals.
Measurements: Baseline p217+tau Simoa® assay, 18F-MK6240 tau-PET and 18F-NAV4694 Aβ-PET with neuropsychological follow-up (MMSE, CDR-SB, AIBL-PACC) over 2.4 ± 0.8 years.
Results: In CI, p217+tau was a significant predictor of change in MMSE (β = -0.55, p < 0.001) and CDR-SB (β =0.61, p < 0.001) with an effect size similar to Aβ Centiloid (MMSE β = -0.48, p = 0.002; CDR-SB β = 0.43, p = 0.004) and meta-temporal (MetaT) tau SUVR (MMSE: β = -0.62, p < 0.001; CDR-SB: β = 0.65, p < 0.001). In CU, only MetaT tau SUVR was significantly associated with change in AIBL-PACC (β = -0.22, p = 0.008). Screening pT+ CI participants into a trial could lead to 24% reduction in sample size compared to screening with PET for A+ and 6-13% compared to screening with PET for T+ (different regions). This would translate to an 81-83% biomarker test cost-saving assuming the p217+tau test cost one-fifth of a PET scan. In a trial requiring PET A+ or T+, p217+tau pre-screening followed by PET in those who were pT+ would cost more in the CI group, compared to 26-38% biomarker test cost-saving in the CU.
Conclusions: Substantial cost reduction can be achieved using p217+tau alone to select participants with MCI or mild dementia for a clinical trial designed to slow cognitive decline over two years, compared to participant selection by PET. In pre-clinical AD trials, p217+tau provides significant cost-saving if used as a pre-screening measure for PET A+ or T+ but in MCI/mild dementia trials this may add to cost both in testing and in the increased number of participants needed for testing.
Competing Interests: Christopher C. Rowe has received research grants from NHMRC, Enigma Australia, Biogen, Eisai and Abbvie. He is on the scientific advisory board for Cerveau Technologies and has consulted for Prothena, Eisai, Roche, and Biogen Australia. Victor L. Villemagne is and has been a consultant or paid speaker at sponsored conference sessions for Eli Lilly, Life Molecular Imaging, GE Healthcare, IXICO, Abbvie, Lundbeck, Shanghai Green Valley Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, and Hoffmann La Roche. Ashley I. Bush is a shareholder in Alterity Ltd, Cogstate Ltd and Mesoblast Ltd. He is a paid consultant for, and has a profit share interest in Collaborative Medicinal Development Pty Ltd. He has received lecture fees from Biogen P/L. Paul Maruff was a full-time employee of Cogstate. Ziad S. Saad, Gallen Triana-Baltzer, Randy Slemmon and Hartmuth C. Kolb are employees of Janssen Pharmaceuticals. The other authors did not report any conflict of interest.