Risk stratification for treating people at ultra-high risk for psychosis: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

People who are at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis receive clinical care with the aim to prevent first-episode psychosis (FEP), regardless of the risk of conversion to psychosis. An economic model from the Canadian health system perspective was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating all with UHR compared to risk stratification over a 15-year time horizon, based on conversion probability, expected quality-of-life and costs. The analysis used a decision tree followed by a Markov model. Health states included: Not UHR, UHR with <20 % risk of conversion to FEP (based on the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study risk calculator), UHR with ≥20 % risk, FEP, Remission, Post-FEP, and Death. The analysis found that: risk stratification (i.e., only treating those with ≥20 % risk) had lower costs ($1398) and quality-adjusted life-years (0.055 QALYs) per person compared to treating all. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for 'treat all' was $25,448/QALY, and suggests treating all may be cost-effective. The model was sensitive to changes to the probability of conversion.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest K.K.A, O.M.O, L.E.C, B.F.M.W, and S.A declare that there is no conflict of interest to disclose. L.P reports speaker fees from Otsuka Canada, SPMM Course Limited, UK, Canadian Psychiatric Association; editorial stipend from the Canadian Medical Association Journals, book royalties from Oxford University Press; investigator-initiated educational grants from Janssen Canada, Sunovion and Otsuka Canada outside the submitted work.
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