Rotavirus Genotypes in the Postvaccine Era: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Global, Regional, and Temporal Trends by Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction.

Background: Even moderate differences in rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against nonvaccine genotypes may exert selective pressures on circulating rotaviruses. Whether this vaccine effect or natural temporal fluctuations underlie observed changes in genotype distributions is unclear.
Methods: We systematically reviewed studies reporting rotavirus genotypes from children <5 years of age globally between 2005 and 2023. We compared rotavirus genotypes between vaccine-introducing and nonintroducing settings globally and by World Health Organization (WHO) region, calendar time, and time since vaccine introduction.
Results: Crude pooling of genotype data from 361 studies indicated higher G2P[4], a nonvaccine genotype, prevalence in vaccine-introducing settings, both globally and by WHO region. This difference did not emerge when examining genotypes over time in the Americas, the only region with robust longitudinal data. Relative to nonintroducing settings, G2P[4] detections were more likely in settings with recent introduction (eg, 1-2 years postintroduction adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.87-6.72) but were similarly likely in settings with more time elapsed since introduction, (eg, 7 or more years aOR, 1.62; 95% CI, .49-5.37).
Conclusions: When accounting for both regional and temporal trends, there was no substantial evidence of long-term vaccine-related selective pressures on circulating genotypes. Increased prevalence of G2P[4] may be transient after rotavirus vaccine introduction.
Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. B. A. L. reports personal fees outside the submitted work from Epidemiologic Research and Methods, LLC and Hillevax, Inc; and has participated on the Data Safety Monitoring Board for the HICRota study in Zambia. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America 2023.)