Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in infants below 6 months of age. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the public health burden is substantial and resources are limited. It is critical to inform decision makers about effectiveness of new interventions.
Methods: We developed a mathematical model where individual RSV subtype A (RSV-A) and B (RSV-B) maternally derived neutralizing titers were predicted at time of birth after maternal vaccination with the RSV prefusion F protein-based vaccine. We estimated the subsequent duration of vaccine-induced immunity and compared this to the age at time of death distribution in the RSV GOLD Mortality Database to predict the potential impact of maternal vaccination on RSV-related childhood mortality. We used country-specific timing of antenatal care visits distributions and mortality estimates to make country-specific predictions for number of cases averted.
Findings: The model predicts that on average a neonate born at 40 weeks gestational age will be protected between 6 and 7 months from RSV-A and approximately 5 months from RSV-B related mortality. We estimated the potential impact of RSV-related mortality for in-hospital and out-of-hospital cases in LMICs and predicted that in 51 GAVI-eligible countries maternal vaccination could avert between 55% and 63% of the RSV-related in-hospital mortality cases below 6 months of age.
Interpretation: We show that maternal vaccination could substantially decrease RSV-A and RSV-B related in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality in LMICs in the first 6 months of life.
Competing Interests: The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: LB has regular interaction with pharmaceutical and other industrial partners. He has not received personal fees or other personal benefits. UMCU has received major funding (>€100,000 per industrial partner) for investigator initiated studies from AbbVie, MedImmune, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Janssen, Pfizer, MSD, and MeMed Diagnostics. UMCU has received major funding for the RSV GOLD study from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. UMCU has received major funding as part of the public private partnership IMI-funded RESCEU and PROMISE projects with partners GSK, Novavax, Janssen, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Sanofi. UMCU has received major funding by Julius Clinical for participating in clinical studies sponsored by MedImmune and Pfizer. UMCU received minor funding (€1,000–25,000 per industrial partner) for consultation and invited lectures by AbbVie, MedImmune, Ablynx, Bavaria Nordic, MabXience, GSK, Novavax, Pfizer, Moderna, Astrazeneca, MSD, Sanofi, Genzyme, Janssen. Dr. Bont is the founding chairman of the ReSViNET Foundation. Since April 1st 2021, LB has been given a new position as medical scientific division manager of the Children's Division of the Wilhelmina Children's Hospital in Utrecht.
(© 2023 The Author(s).)