AI-Guided Quantitative Plaque Staging Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients at Risk for Atherosclerotic CVD.

Background: The recent development of artificial intelligence-guided quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography analysis (AI-QCT) has enabled rapid analysis of atherosclerotic plaque burden and characteristics.
Objectives: This study set out to investigate the 10-year prognostic value of atherosclerotic burden derived from AI-QCT and to compare the spectrum of plaque to manually assessed coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), and clinical risk characteristics.
Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study of 536 patients referred for suspected coronary artery disease. CCTA scans were analyzed with AI-QCT and plaque burden was classified with a plaque staging system (stage 0: 0% percentage atheroma volume [PAV]; stage 1: >0%-5% PAV; stage 2: >5%-15% PAV; stage 3: >15% PAV). The primary major adverse cardiac event (MACE) outcome was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause mortality.
Results: The mean age at baseline was 58.6 years and 297 patients (55%) were male. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years (IQR: 8.6-11.5 years), 114 patients (21%) experienced the primary outcome. Compared to stages 0 and 1, patients with stage 3 PAV and percentage of noncalcified plaque volume of >7.5% had a more than 3-fold (adjusted HR: 3.57; 95% CI 2.12-6.00; P < 0.001) and 4-fold (adjusted HR: 4.37; 95% CI: 2.51-7.62; P < 0.001) increased risk of MACE, respectively. Addition of AI-QCT improved a model with clinical risk factors and CACS at different time points during follow-up (10-year AUC: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87] vs 0.73 [95% CI: 0.68-0.79]; P < 0.001; net reclassification improvement: 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09-0.38]). Furthermore, AI-QCT achieved an improved area under the curve compared to Coronary Artery Disease Reporting and Data System 2.0 (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.023) and manual QCT (10-year AUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83; P = 0.040), although net reclassification improvement was modest (0.09 [95% CI: -0.02 to 0.29] and 0.04 [95% CI: -0.05 to 0.27], respectively).
Conclusions: Through 10-year follow-up, AI-QCT plaque staging showed important prognostic value for MACE and showed additional discriminatory value over clinical risk factors, CACS, and manual guideline-recommended CCTA assessment.
Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures Dr Nurmohamed is co-founder of Lipid Tools. Dr Stroes has received lecturing/advisory board fees from Amgen, Novartis, Esperion, Sanofi-Regeneron, and Akcea. Drs Min and Earls are employees of and hold equity in Cleerly Inc. Dr Choi has received grant support from GW Heart and Vascular Institute; holds equity in Cleerly, Inc; and has provided consulting services to Siemens Healthineers. Dr Knaapen has received research grants from HeartFlow, Inc. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.
(Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)