Assessing the driving role of the anthropogenic landscape on the distribution of the Xylella fastidiosa-driven "olive quick decline syndrome" in Apulia (Italy).

The plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a significant threat to various economically important tree cash crops. Although previously found only in the Americas, the bacterium responsible for olive quick decline syndrome was detected in Apulia, Italy, in 2013. Since then, it has spread to approximately 54,000 ha of olive trees in the region, causing dramatic concern throughout the Mediterranean basin. As a result, it is crucial to comprehend its distribution and forecast its potential diffusion. The effect of the anthropogenic component of the landscape on the distribution of Xf remains little explored. The present study used an ecological niche model to identify how different land uses, used as proxies of different levels of human pressure across the Apulia territory, impacted the distribution of the Xf-infected olive trees in 2015-2021. Results demonstrated that the anthropogenic component significantly contributed to the epidemic, with the road system representing the main driver of diffusion and natural/seminatural areas hampering Xf spread at the landscape scale. This evidence highlighted the importance of explicitly considering the effects of the anthropogenic landscape when modelling Xf distribution and support the design of landscape-informed monitoring strategies to prevent Xf spread in Apulia and other Mediterranean countries.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The work was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) – MISSION 4 COMPONENT 2, INVESTMENT 1.4 – D.D. 1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). The work was also carried out within the Project 'DIACOX' funded by the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forest - DM 664531 - 28/12/2022. This manuscript reflects only the author’s views and opinions, neither the European Commission nor the Italian Ministry can be considered responsible for them.
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