Level of Overestimation Among Dutch Recreational Skiers: Unskilled Tourists in the Mountains.

Objective: To examine the level of overestimation (LO), associated factors, and identify the group of severe overestimators, among recreational skiers.
Design: Cross-sectional observational study.
Setting: An intermediate difficulty slope in an artificial snow indoor ski hall, and one in the mountains (Flachau, Austria).
Participants: Dutch recreational skiers.
Independent Variables: Participants were asked to rate themselves (SRSS, self-reported skill score). While skiing downhill they were objectively evaluated by 2 expert assessors (OSS, observed skill score). Potential associated factors and predictors for severe overestimation were assessed by a questionnaire.
Main Outcome Measures: The LO, calculated by subtracting the OSS from the SRSS, was categorized into "no," "mild," and "severe." Potential differences between these groups were analyzed, and regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with severe overestimation. To construct a profile of severe overestimators, the dataset was stratified based on 3 variables.
Results: Overestimation was largely present (79.8%), and was severe in 32%. The LO decreased toward the more skilled skiers. Severe overestimators were mainly male, skied the least hours per day, were more avoidant, and showed the highest proportions of beginners and slightly advanced skiers. The profile of "severe overestimator" is characterized by physically unprepared males, avoidant for certain weather circumstances.
Conclusions: Overestimation among recreational Dutch skiers is largely present, particularly among physically unprepared males, avoidant of certain snow and weather conditions. These features may function as a proxy to identify "severe overestimators" in comparable populations. Preventive strategies should focus to increase awareness particularly among these subjects.
Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest.
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