Rising Trend in the Prevalence of HPV-Driven Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma during 2000-2022 in Northeastern Italy: Implication for Using p16 INK4a as a Surrogate Marker for HPV-Driven Carcinogenesis.

Background: The prevalence and incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) driven by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection are increasing worldwide, being higher in high-income countries. However, data from Italy are scanty. p16 ^INK4a overexpression is the standard in determining HPV-driven carcinogenesis, but disease prevalence impacts on its positive predictive value.
Methods: This is a multicenter retrospective study enrolling 390 consecutive patients aged ≥18 years, diagnosed with pathologically confirmed OPSCC in Northeastern Italy between 2000 and 2022. High-risk HPV-DNA and p16 ^INK4a status were retrieved from medical records or evaluated in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens. A tumor was defined as HPV-driven when double positive for high-risk HPV-DNA and p16 ^INK4a overexpression.
Results: Overall, 125 cases (32%) were HPV-driven, with a significant upward temporal trend from 12% in 2000-2006 to 50% in 2019-2022. The prevalence of HPV-driven cancer of the tonsil and base of the tongue increased up to 59%, whereas it remained below 10% in other subsites. Consequently, the p16 ^INK4a positive predictive value was 89% for the former and 29% for the latter.
Conclusions: The prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC continued to increase, even in the most recent period. When using p16 ^INK4a overexpression as a surrogate marker of transforming HPV infection, each institution should consider the subsite-specific prevalence rates of HPV-driven OPSCC as these significantly impact on its positive predictive value.