VO 2max prediction based on submaximal cardiorespiratory relationships and body composition in male runners and cyclists: a population study.

Background: Oxygen uptake (VO ₂ ) is one of the most important measures of fitness and critical vital sign. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a valuable method of assessing fitness in sport and clinical settings. There is a lack of large studies on athletic populations to predict VO _2max using somatic or submaximal CPET variables. Thus, this study aimed to: (1) derive prediction models for maximal VO ₂ (VO _2max ) based on submaximal exercise variables at anaerobic threshold (AT) or respiratory compensation point (RCP) or only somatic and (2) internally validate provided equations.
Methods: Four thousand four hundred twenty-four male endurance athletes (EA) underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET on a treadmill (n=3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). The cohort was randomly divided between: variables selection (n _runners = 1998; n _cyclist = 656), model building (n _runners = 666; n _cyclist = 219), and validation (n _runners = 666; n _cyclist = 219). Random forest was used to select the most significant variables. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression.
Results: Runners were 36.24±8.45 years; BMI = 23.94 ± 2.43 kg·m ^-2 ; VO _2max =53.81±6.67 mL·min ^-1 ·kg ^-1 . Cyclists were 37.33±9.13 years; BMI = 24.34 ± 2.63 kg·m ^-2 ; VO _2max =51.74±7.99 mL·min ^-1 ·kg ^-1 . VO ₂ at AT and RCP were the most contributing variables to exercise equations. Body mass and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. Model performance for VO _2max based on variables at AT was R ² =0.81, at RCP was R ² =0.91, at AT and RCP was R ² =0.91 and for somatic-only was R ² =0.43.
Conclusions: Derived prediction models were highly accurate and fairly replicable. Formulae allow for precise estimation of VO _2max based on submaximal exercise performance or somatic variables. Presented models are applicable for sport and clinical settling. They are a valuable supplementary method for fitness practitioners to adjust individualised training recommendations.
Funding: No external funding was received for this work.
Competing Interests: SW received payment for leading CPET workshops at IX Małopolskich Warsztatach Niewydolności Serca. The author has no other competing interest to declare, PK, PS, IC, MP, AK No competing interests declared, TK has received funding from the Institute of Sport - National Research Institute. The author has received consulting fees for regular coaching and consulting work with private clients, Polish Triathlon Federation and The Triathlon Squad professional triathlon team. The author has no other competing interests to declare
(© 2023, Wiecha et al.)