Once bitten twice shy: Risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis recurrence in Castilla y Leon, Spain.

Persistence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herd remains a major challenge in disease elimination due to the ineffectual removal of all infected animals in a bTB breakdown. Characterization of herds with a higher probability of experiencing further bTB breakdowns can help to implement specific risk-based policies for disease control and eradication. Here, our aim was to identify herd- and breakdown-level risk factors in bTB infected herds in Castilla y Leon, Spain, associated with a decreased time to recurrence and an increased risk of recurrence using a mixed effects Cox proportional hazards model and a multivariable logistic regression model, respectively. Results revealed that location (province), herd size and number of incoming animals/contacts were good predictors of a decreased time to bTB recurrence and an increased risk of becoming a recurrent herd. Additionally, the duration of the previous outbreak and the number of IFN-γ herd-tests applied in it were associated with increased odds of (an early) recurrence. Risk factors identified here can be used for early identification of herds in which bTB eradication may be more challenging and that should thus be subjected to increased control efforts. The characterization of high-risk herds may help to minimize the risk of reinfection and emphasize early detection and removal of bTB positive animals in the herd.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None of the authors has any financial or personal relationships that could inappropriately influence or bias the content of the paper. Ethical review and approval were not required for the animal study because all data was collected as part of authorized regulatory surveillance in the framework of the Spanish National Eradication Program for Bovine Tuberculosis. Written informed consent for participation was not obtained from the owners because approval from premises owners was not required for this study.
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