Prediction of massive coronary thrombosis of the infarct-related artery in ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

Aim    To identify clinical, laboratory and angiographic predictors for development of massive coronary thrombosis in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Material and methods    This prospective, single-site study included 137 patients with STEMI (mean age, 66.5±13.2 years). Among these patients, 59 were in the group of massive coronary thrombosis and 78 patients were in the group of minor thrombosis. To identify predictors for the development of massive coronary thrombosis, medical history data, blood count and biochemistry, coagulogram, and angiography data were analyzed. A predictive model was constructed using the method of binary logistic regression followed by a search for the optimum value of the prognostic function with a ROC analysis. Results    The study showed statistically significant roles of total bilirubin, platelets, prothrombin ratio (PTR), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and presence of inferior myocardial infarction in prediction of massive coronary thrombosis in STEMI. The model sensitivity was 71.2 %, specificity 75.6 %, and overall diagnostic efficacy 73.7 %.Conclusion    The predictive model for the development of massive coronary thrombosis in STEMI based on laboratory and instrumental data potentially allows assessing the thrombus load in the infarction-involved coronary artery and determining the optimum tactics of percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with STEMI. This reduces the probability of distal embolization with fragments of the disintegrated thrombus and improves the prognosis of STEMI patients both during the stay in the hospital and in the long-term. According to results of this study, the prognostic model for massive coronary thrombosis in STEMI based on such indexes as the platelet count, PTR, APTT, total bilirubin, and presence of inferior myocardial infarction provides accurate predictions in 73.7 % of cases. Independent predictors of massive coronary thrombosis were inferior myocardial infarction and total bilirubin.