Potential health benefits of integrated screening strategies for alcohol, tobacco, other substance use, depression, anxiety, and chronic pain among people living with HIV in the USA: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Alcohol use, tobacco use, and other substance use often co-occur with depression, anxiety, and chronic pain, forming a constellation of alcohol, substance, and mood-related (CASM) conditions that disproportionately affects people with HIV in the USA. We used a microsimulation model to evaluate how alternative screening strategies accounting for CASM interdependence could affect life expectancy in people with HIV in the USA.
Methods: We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict US adult life expectancy, including in people with HIV. Using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, we incorporated CASM co-occurrence, inferred causal relationships between CASM conditions, and assessed the effects of CASM on HIV treatment and preventive care. We simulated an in-care HIV cohort exposed to alternative CASM screening and diagnostic assessment strategies, ranging from currently recommended screenings (alcohol, tobacco, and depression, with diagnostic assessments for conditions screening positive) to a series of integrated strategies (screening for alcohol, tobacco, or depression with additional diagnostic assessments if any screened positive) to a maximal saturation strategy (diagnostic assessments for all CASM conditions).
Findings: The saturation strategy increased life expectancy by 0·95 years (95% CI 0·93-0·98) compared with no screening. Recommended screenings provided much less benefit: 0·06 years (0·03-0·09) gained from alcohol screening, 0·08 years (0·06-0·11) from tobacco screening, 0·10 years (0·08-0·11) from depression screening, and 0·25 years (0·22-0·27) from all three screenings together. One integrated strategy (screening alcohol, tobacco, and depression with diagnostic assessment for all CASM conditions if any screened positive) produced near-maximal benefit (0·82 years [0·80-0·84]) without adding substantial screening burden, albeit requiring additional diagnostic assessments.
Interpretation: Primary care providers for people with HIV should consider comprehensive diagnostic assessment of CASM conditions if one or more conditions screen positive.
Funding: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.
Competing Interests: Declaration of interests KJB declares advisory board participation as a representative of the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. All other authors declare no competing interests.
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