Interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) for the early prognosis of the risk for severe respiratory failure and death in COVID-19 pneumonia.

Objectives: Elevated concentrations of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predict progression to severe respiratory failure (SRF) or death among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and guide early anakinra treatment. As suPAR testing may not be routinely available in every health-care setting, alternative biomarkers are needed. We investigated the performance of C-reactive protein (CRP), interferon gamma-induced protein-10 (IP-10) and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) for predicting SRF or death in COVID-19.
Methods: Two cohorts were studied; one discovery cohort with 534 patients from the SAVE-MORE clinical trial; and one validation cohort with 364 patients from the SAVE trial including also 145 comparators. CRP, IP-10 and TRAIL were measured by the MeMed Key® platform in order to select the biomarker with the best prognostic performance for the early prediction of progression into SRF or death.
Results: IP-10 had the best prognostic performance: baseline concentrations 2000 pg/ml or higher predicted equally well to suPAR (sensitivity 85.0 %; negative predictive value 96.6 %). Odds ratio for poor outcome among anakinra-treated participants of the SAVE-MORE trial was 0.35 compared to placebo when IP-10 was 2,000 pg/ml or more. IP-10 could divide different strata of severity for SRF/death by day 14 in the validation cohort. Anakinra treatment decreased this risk irrespective the IP-10 concentrations.
Conclusions: IP-10 concentrations of 2,000 pg/ml or higher are a valid alternative to suPAR for the early prediction of progression into SRF or death the first 14 days from hospital admission for COVID-19 and they may guide anakinra treatment.
Clinicaltrials: gov, NCT04680949 and NCT04357366.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper: [ER, AA are employees at MeMed Diagnostics. GB’s work was partly funded by the Italian Ministry of Health ‘Fondi Ricerca Corrente’ to IRCCS Sacro Cuore Don Calabria Hospital. GND has acted as advisor/lecturer for Ipsen, Pfizer, Genkyotex, Novartis and Sobi; received research grants from Abbvie and Gilead; PI in studies for Abbvie, Novartis, Gilead, Novo Nordisk, Genkyotex, Regulus Therapeutics Inc., Tiziana Life Sciences, Bayer, Astellas, Pfizer, Amyndas Pharmaceuticals, CymaBay Therapeutics Inc., Sobi and Intercept Pharmaceuticals. MGN was supported by an ERC Advanced grant (833247) and a Spinoza grant of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research. EJGB has received honoraria from Abbott CH, bioMérieux, Brahms GmbH, GSK, InflaRx GmbH, Sobi and XBiotech Inc; independent educational grants from Abbott CH, AbbVie, bioMérieux Inc, InflaRx GmbH, Johnson & Johnson, MSD, Novartis, Sobi, UCB and XBiotech Inc.; and funding from the Horizon2020 Marie-Curie Project European Sepsis Academy (granted to the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens), the Horizon 2020 European Grants ImmunoSep and RISKinCOVID (granted to the Hellenic Institute for the Study of Sepsis) and from the Horizon Europe project EPIC-CROWN-2 (granted to the Hellenic Institute for the Study of Sepsis). The other authors do not have any competing interest to declare.].
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