A mathematical model for the dynamics and control of malaria in Nigeria.

Authors :: Collins OC
Duffy KJ
Source :: Infectious Disease Modelling [Infect Dis Model] 2022 Nov 05; Vol. 7 (4), pp. 728-741. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Nov 05 (Print Publication: 2022).
Publication Year :: 2022
Abstract: Malaria is a life-threatening disease endemic in many African countries especially Nigeria. A mathematical model is used to study the dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. The model incorporates drug resistance, treatment, and the use of mosquito nets as preventive strategies. By fitting the model to data on the incidence of malaria in Nigeria, important parameters associated with the disease dynamics are estimated. Using these estimated parameters, the basic reproduction number is calculated, future dynamics simulated, and those parameters with a large impact on Nigerian malaria determined. Overall, the results indicate that the disease is likely to remain endemic in Nigeria unless better control measures are focused on the dominant resistant strain, treatment is improved and the use of mosquito nets become widespread.<br />Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests regarding the publication of our manuscripts titled “A mathematical model for the dynamics and control of malaria in Nigeria” in the Infectious Disease Modelling.<br /> (© 2022 The Authors.)