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Subtypes specified environmental dependence of seasonal influenza virus.

Authors :: Zhang B
Chen T
Liang S
Shen W
Sun Q
Wang D
Wang G
Yang J
Yang L
Wang D
Shu Y
Du X
Source :: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2022 Dec 15; Vol. 852, pp. 158525. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Sep 06.
Publication Year :: 2022
Abstract: Understanding the role of meteorological factors in the transmission dynamics of respiratory infectious diseases remains challenging. Our study was to comprehensively investigate the nonlinear effects of environmental factors on influenza transmission, based on multi-region surveillance data from mainland China. An approach related to time-varying reproduction number (R <subscript>t</subscript> ) was proposed, which extracts the environment-related components from R <subscript>t</subscript> to estimate the relationship between environmental factors and influenza transmission based on a mixed-effects regression model. Nonlinear relationships for absolute humidity (the lowest transmission was observed at absolute humidity of 12 g/m <superscript>3</superscript> ) and mean temperature (the lowest transmission was observed at the mean temperature of 18 <superscript>°</superscript> C) with influenza transmission were observed. Influenza transmission holds almost constant with the average precipitation below 1 mm or sunshine hour below 9 h/day, but increases for the precipitation and decreases for the sunshine hour afterward. The environmental dependence varies across subtypes: A(H3N2) maintains relatively higher transmission in high temperature and humidity conditions, compared with other influenza subtypes. Overall, the subtypes specified environmental dependence of influenza transmission could explain 23.1 %, 29.2 % and 27.1 % of the variations for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B-lineage in China. The projected seasonal transmission rates based on our approach could be used as a valuable seasonal proxy to model the influenza dynamics under various meteorological spaces. Finally, our approach is also applicable to obtain novel insights into the impact of environmental factors on other respiratory infectious diseases.<br />Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier B.V.)