Transition from metabolically healthy to unhealthy overweight/obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease incidence: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aims: Discrepant results have been demonstrated regarding the cardiovascular (CV) risk of populations with metabolically healthy overweight/obesity (MHO) who were transitioned into metabolically unhealthy states. So, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) incidence in individuals with transitional MHO phenotype.
Data Synthesis: A literature review was done in PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, and google scholar databases. Pooled HRs for all fatal and nonfatal CV events were computed using random-effect models for transitional MHOs in general as well as for each sex subgroup separately. This systematic review and meta-analysis included a total of 7 prospective observational studies with a total of 7,720,165 participants, published between 2018 and 2020. The mean follow-up duration of participants was 11.7 (5.5) years. Overall, the transitional MHO individuals had a significant risk of CVD incidence [HR = 1.42, 95% CI (1.24-1.60)]. In addition, in both male and female subgroups, unstable MHO phenotype demonstrated a significant CVD risk and HRs for incident CVD in males and females were 1.51 (1.07-1.96) and 1.71 (1.08-2.34), respectively.
Conclusion: Transition from MHO to unhealthy state throughout follow-up elevated the risk of CVD in both male and female groups. This can explain the association between MHO and incidence of CV events especially with longer follow up period.
Registration Code in Prospero: CRD42021270225.
(Copyright © 2022 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)