The GLM framework of the Lee-Carter model: a multi-country study.

Authors :: Azman S
Pathmanathan D
Source :: Journal of applied statistics [J Appl Stat] 2020 Oct 13; Vol. 49 (3), pp. 752-763. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Oct 13 (Print Publication: 2022).
Publication Year :: 2020
Abstract: The Lee-Carter model is a well-known model in modeling mortality. We aim to compare three probability models (Poisson, negative binomial and binomial) based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of the Lee-Carter model. These models are applied to mortality data for 10 selected countries (Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Netherlands and Bulgaria) and the fit of these models is assessed using the deviance statistics and standardized residuals against fitted value plot. Among these three models, the negative binomial Lee-Carter model gave the best fit based on the deviance statistics and estimates of the log of deaths.<br />Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).<br /> (© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)