Back to Search
Start Over
Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks.
- Source :
-
Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2022 Apr 19; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 2094. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Apr 19. - Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO <subscript>2</subscript> . Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015-2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha <superscript>-1</superscript> y <superscript>-1</superscript> . The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions after incorporating the field-based mortality constraint. The observation-constrained models show a decrease in the tropical forest carbon sink by the end of the century, particularly across South America (from 2 to 1.4 PgC y <superscript>-1</superscript> ), and an increase in the sink in North America (from 0.8 to 1.1 PgC y <superscript>-1</superscript> ). These results highlight the feasibility of using forest demographic data to empirically constrain forest carbon sink projections and the potential overestimation of projected tropical forest carbon sinks.<br /> (© 2022. The Author(s).)
- Subjects :
- Biomass
Carbon
South America
Uncertainty
Carbon Sequestration
Ecosystem
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 2041-1723
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Nature communications
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 35440564
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4