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Decision-based interactive model to determine re-opening conditions of a large university campus in Belgium during the first COVID-19 wave.
- Source :
-
Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique [Arch Public Health] 2022 Mar 04; Vol. 80 (1), pp. 71. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Mar 04. - Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Background: The role played by large-scale repetitive SARS-CoV-2 screening programs within university populations interacting continuously with an urban environment, is unknown. Our objective was to develop a model capable of predicting the dispersion of viral contamination among university populations dividing their time between social and academic environments.<br />Methods: Data was collected through real, large-scale testing developed at the University of Liège, Belgium, during the period Sept. 28th-Oct. 29th 2020. The screening, offered to students and staff (n = 30,000), began 2 weeks after the re-opening of the campus but had to be halted after 5 weeks due to an imposed general lockdown. The data was then used to feed a two-population model (University + surrounding environment) implementing a generalized susceptible-exposed-infected-removed compartmental modeling framework.<br />Results: The considered two-population model was sufficiently versatile to capture the known dynamics of the pandemic. The reproduction number was estimated to be significantly larger on campus than in the urban population, with a net difference of 0.5 in the most severe conditions. The low adhesion rate for screening (22.6% on average) and the large reproduction number meant the pandemic could not be contained. However, the weekly screening could have prevented 1393 cases (i.e. 4.6% of the university population; 95% CI: 4.4-4.8%) compared to a modeled situation without testing.<br />Conclusion: In a real life setting in a University campus, periodic screening could contribute to limiting the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic cycle but is highly dependent on its environment.<br /> (© 2022. The Author(s).)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0778-7367
- Volume :
- 80
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 35241162
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00801-w