SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru.

Authors :: Huarachi Olivera RE
Lazarte RIvera AM
Source :: Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina) [Rev Fac Cien Med Univ Nac Cordoba] 2021 Aug 23; Vol. 78 (3), pp. 236-242. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 23.
Publication Year :: 2021
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 virus from Europe has reached Peru on March 5 and since March 16 a state of national emergency has been declared, leading to the confinement of the entire population. The objective of this study is to characterize the epidemic evolution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) applying the SIR model (Susceptible-Infectious-recovered or deceased) during a period of 200 days. The time series data of COVID-19 from March 06 to May 14, 2020 of the Peruvian Ministry of Health was used, presenting estimated cases by varying the basic reproduction number R0. According to the SIR model, the peak of those infected occurs shortly after May 30 from the beginning of the epidemic (day 86) where the total number of infected cases decreases to R0 = 1.5. The results suggest that Peru's current stringent measures can effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained even with efficient results.<br /> (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)