Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget.

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH ₄ ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH ₄ emissions and CH ₄ accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH ₄ emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH ₄ emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH ₄  yr ^-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH ₄ emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH ₄ burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.
(© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)