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Effect of Non-lockdown Social Distancing and Testing-Contact Tracing During a COVID-19 Outbreak in Daegu, South Korea, February to April 2020: A Modeling Study.
- Source :
-
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [Int J Infect Dis] 2021 Sep; Vol. 110, pp. 213-221. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 29. - Publication Year :
- 2021
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Abstract
- Objective: In Spring 2020, South Korea applied non-lockdown social distancing (avoiding mass gathering and non-essential social engagement, without restricting the movement of people who were not patients or contacts), testing-and-isolation (testing), and tracing-and-quarantine the contacts (contact tracing) to successfully control the first large-scale COVID-19 outbreak outside China. However, the relative contributions of these two interventions remain uncertain.<br />Methods: We constructed an SEIR model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (disproportionately through superspreading events) and fit the model to outbreak data in Daegu, South Korea, from February to April 2020. We assessed the effect of non-lockdown social distancing (population-wide control measures) and/or testing-contact tracing (individual-specific control measures), alone or combined, in terms of the basic reproductive number (R0) and the trajectory of the epidemic.<br />Results: The point estimate for baseline R0 is 3.6 (sensitivity analyses range: 2.3 to 5.6). Combined interventions of non-lockdown social distancing and testing-contact tracing can suppress R0 to less than one and rapidly contain the epidemic, even under the worst scenario with a high baseline R0 of 5.6. In contrast, either intervention alone will fail to suppress R0. Non-lockdown social distancing alone just postpones the peak of the epidemic, while testing-contact tracing alone only flattens the curve but does not contain the outbreak.<br />Conclusions: To successfully control a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak, both non-lockdown social distancing and testing-contact tracing must be implemented. The two interventions are synergistic.<br /> (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1878-3511
- Volume :
- 110
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 34333119
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.058