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Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison.
- Source :
-
International journal of environmental research and public health [Int J Environ Res Public Health] 2021 May 14; Vol. 18 (10). Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 May 14. - Publication Year :
- 2021
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Abstract
- Few studies have examined the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in rural areas and clarified rural-urban differences. Moreover, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) relative to vaccination in rural areas is uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap through using an improved statistical stochastic method based on the Galton-Watson branching process, considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Data included 1136 SARS-2-CoV infections of the rural outbreak in Hebei, China, and 135 infections of the urban outbreak in Tianjin, China. We reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains and analyzed the effectiveness of vaccination and NPIs by simulation studies. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 showed strong heterogeneity in urban and rural areas, with the dispersion parameters k = 0.14 and 0.35, respectively ( k < 1 indicating strong heterogeneity). Although age group and contact-type distributions significantly differed between urban and rural areas, the average reproductive number ( R ) and k did not. Further, simulation results based on pre-control parameters ( R = 0.81, k = 0.27) showed that in the vaccination scenario (80% efficacy and 55% coverage), the cumulative secondary infections will be reduced by more than half; however, NPIs are more effective than vaccinating 65% of the population. These findings could inform government policies regarding vaccination and NPIs in rural and urban areas.
- Subjects :
- China epidemiology
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1660-4601
- Volume :
- 18
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- International journal of environmental research and public health
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 34068947
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18105221