The value of ultrasonography combined with clinical features for predicting carotid imaging progression of Takayasu's arteritis: a prospective cohort study.

Objectives: To identify valuable ultrasonography findings combined with clinical markers for predicting carotid progression of Takayasu's arteritis (TAK) on imaging during a 1-year follow-up period.
Methods: From May 2016 to June 2019, 77 Chinese TAK patients with carotid artery involvement were enrolled in the present study. The patients' clinical characteristics and serological test and carotid ultrasonography results were recorded at baseline and each visit. Carotid progression was evaluated by ultrasonography every 3 months during the 1-year follow-up. Baseline clinical characteristics and ultrasonography results for predicting progression on imaging were identified.
Results: Sixteen (20.8%) patients presented with carotid progression on imaging during the 1-year follow-up period. The patients in the progressive group were younger (23.4±3.7 vs. 32.3±9.8 years, p<0.01) than those in the non-progressive group. At baseline, the vessel wall was thicker in the progressive group than in the non-progressive group (2.4±0.8 vs. 1.9±0.5 mm, p=0.041). Furthermore, the proportion of patients with refractory disease (87.5% vs. 16.4%, p<0.01) was higher in the progressive group than in the non-progressive group. Patients with a thickened carotid wall (≥1.9 mm), refractory disease, and younger age (≤30 years) might be at a high risk of carotid progression on imaging (75%, AUC: 0.93, sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 93.4%).
Conclusions: Younger patients with early vascular structural changes at baseline as well as refractory disease seemed more likely to show carotid progression on imaging.