Fractional seroprevalence rates in common prey species can cause more than half of feral cats to be exposed to Toxoplasma gondii annually.

Rodents comprise a major component of cat (Felis catus) diets in many ecosystems, and life cycle diagrams of Toxoplasma gondii typically depict small rodents as quintessential intermediate hosts. Counter-intuitively, small rodents often experience a lower T. gondii seroprevalence than do larger sympatric mammals. This observation has repeatedly caused confusion about the relative importance of small rodents to the ecology of T. gondii. To address this confusion, we modified the Reed-Frost epidemic model to develop a simple binomial equation to model T. gondii transmission from prey to feline predators. This equation takes into account variations in prey seroprevalence and the frequency with which they are consumed by felids. Even when T. gondii seroprevalence in prey is < 1%, computation reveals that the risk of feline exposure to T. gondii can easily exceed 50 % annually. For example, if cats eat an average of 1 mouse per day, a seroprevalence of 0.2 % (1/500) in mice will cause 51.9 % of cats to be exposed to T. gondii annually. Our simple equation demonstrates that both prey seroprevalence and the rate at which prey are consumed are of approximately equal importance to the ecology of T. gondii. When inferring the importance of various prey species to the ecology of T. gondii, researchers must consider the predation and dietary habits of felids from within their study system. Our simple binomial equation could also be used to predict T. gondii exposure rates of humans or other carnivorous animals from various dietary sources or be applied to other predator-prey parasite life cycles.
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