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New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model.
- Source :
-
Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2020 Oct 23; Vol. 10 (1), pp. 18187. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Oct 23. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scenario where Japan achieves UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, three PrEP scenarios defined by different coverage levels of 25%, 50%, and 75% among the 20% of MSM with the highest risk behavior, and combinations of these scenarios. With no change in interventions prevalence of HIV among MSM will rise to 9.0% in 2050. If Japan achieves full UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, 84.9% of these infections would be averted. Under 50% PrEP with no expansion of testing and treatment, prevalence will reach 2.6% and 62.1% of infections would be averted by 2050. If in addition UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals are achieved, 92.7% of HIV infections would be prevented by 2050. All interventions tested in this model were cost-saving relative to the base case. Both PrEP and enhanced ART strategies can be cost-saving, and if Japan enhances its testing program for MSM and introduces PrEP, it has the potential to effectively eliminate new infections in the next 30 years.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 2045-2322
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Scientific reports
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 33097798
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75182-7