Estimating the impact of lock-down, quarantine and sensitization in a COVID-19 outbreak: lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Authors :: Collins OC
Duffy KJ
Source :: PeerJ [PeerJ] 2020 Sep 17; Vol. 8, pp. e9933. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 17 (Print Publication: 2020).
Publication Year :: 2020
Abstract: In recent history, COVID-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks currently affecting humanity globally. Using real data on the COVID-19 outbreak from 22 January 2020 to 30 March 2020, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the impact of control measures in reducing the spread of the disease. Analyses of the model were carried out to determine the dynamics. The results of the analyses reveal that, using the data from China, implementing all possible control measures best reduced the rate of secondary infections. However, quarantine (isolation) of infectious individuals is shown to have the most dominant effect. This possibility emphasizes the need for extensive testing due to the possible prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.<br />Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests.<br /> (©2020 Collins and Duffy.)

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