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Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse.

Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse.

Authors :
Holsman KK
Haynie AC
Hollowed AB
Reum JCP
Aydin K
Hermann AJ
Cheng W
Faig A
Ianelli JN
Kearney KA
Punt AE
Source :
Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2020 Sep 11; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 4579. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 11.
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075-2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1-2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2041-1723
Volume :
11
Issue :
1
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
Nature communications
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
32917860
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3