Patients with shoulder pain referred to specialist care; treatment, predictors of pain and disability, emotional distress, main symptoms and sick-leave: a cohort study with a six-months follow-up.

Objectives Recommendations for referral of patients with shoulder pain from primary to specialist care are mainly clinical. Several patients are referred without meeting these criteria for referral, whereas some are referred for a second opinion although surgery is not recommended. The aims of this study were to describe a shoulder pain cohort in specialist healthcare according to demographic data, clinical, and psychological factors; evaluate changes in pain and disability, distress and main symptoms from baseline to six-month follow-up; and to assess predictors of pain and disability, changes in the main symptoms and sick-leave at six-months. Results were compared to previous randomised trials conducted at the same clinic in patients with subacromial shoulder pain. Methods This prospective study included 167 patients from an outpatient clinic in specialist healthcare with shoulder pain for more than 6 weeks. Clinical (pain duration, intensity, pain sites), sociodemographic (age, gender, educational level, work status) and psychological variables (emotional distress (HSCL-10), fear of pain, screening of "yellow flags", health-related quality of life) were collected. Shoulder pain and disability (SPADI-score) were assessed and the patients were asked about their outcome expectation and to predict their status of their shoulder problem the next month. They underwent a clinical interview, a clinical assessment of shoulder function and orthopaedic tests for diagnostic purposes. After six months they received a questionnaire with main variables. Results Of the 167 patients (55% women), 50% had symptoms for more than 12 months and 37 (22%) were on sick-leave. Characteristics were in general comparable to patients previously included in clinical trials at the same department. The SPADI-score was 46 (23) points. Mean emotional distress was within the normal range (1.7 (SD 0.6)). More than 80% had received treatment before, mainly physiotherapy in addition to the GPs treatment. One hundred and thirty-seven patients (82%) were re-referred to physiotherapy, 74 (44%) in the outpatient clinic specialist healthcare, and 63 (38%) in primary care. One hundred and eighteen (71%) answered the follow-up questionnaire. Mean change in SPADI-score was 10.5 points (95% CI (6.5-14.5)), and 29% of the patients improved more than the smallest detectable difference (SDD). The percentage sick-listed was 19.5%, and mean change in main symptoms (-9 to +9) was 3.4 (SD 3.9). The subgroup of patients receiving physiotherapy in outpatient specialist care did not show any significant change in the main variables. The prediction models suggested that a lower level of education, more fear of pain and a high baseline SPADI-score, predicted a higher SPADI-score at follow-up. A high baseline HSCL-10 score was the only significant predictor for a high HSCL-10 score. At follow-up, less pain at rest predicted more change in main symptoms and more yellow flags (a higher score on the Örebro screening test) predicted sick-leave. Conclusions Within the limitations of a cohort study, patients with persistent shoulder pain referred to an outpatient specialist clinic had similar baseline characteristics but shorter treatment duration, inferior clinical results and predictors somewhat different compared with previous clinical trials conducted at the same clinic. The study raises some questions about the effectiveness of the routines in daily clinical practice, the selection of patients, the treatment duration and content.