Magee Equations™ and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ER+/HER2-negative breast cancer: a multi-institutional study.

Magee Equations™ (ME) are multivariable models that can estimate oncotype DX ^® recurrence score. One of the equations, Magee Equation 3 (ME3) which utilizes only semi-quantitative receptor results has been shown to provide chemopredictive value in the neoadjuvant setting in a single institutional study. This multi-institutional study (seven institutions contributed cases) was undertaken to examine the validity of ME3 in predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in estrogen receptor positive, HER2-negative breast cancers. Stage IV cases were excluded. The primary endpoint was the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate in different categories of ME3 scores calculated based on receptor results in the pre-therapy core biopsy. A total of 166 cases met the inclusion criteria. The patient age ranged from 24 to 83 years (median 53 years). The average pre-therapy tumor size was 3.9 cm, and axillary lymph nodes were confirmed positive by pre-therapy core biopsy in 85 of 166 cases (51%). The pCR rate according to ME3 scores was 0% (0 of 64) in ME3 < 18, 0% (0 of 46) in ME3 18-25, 14% (3 of 21) in ME3 > 25 to <31, and 40% (14 of 35) in ME3 score 31 or higher (p value: <0.0001). There were no distant recurrences and no deaths in the 17 patients with pCR. In the remaining 149 cases with residual disease, ME3 score of >25 was significantly associated with shorter distant recurrence-free survival and showed a trend for shorter breast cancer-specific survival. The results of this multi-institutional study are similar to previously published data from a single institution (PMID: 28548119) and confirm the chemo-predictive value of ME3 in the neoadjuvant setting. In addition, ME3 may provide prognostic information in patients with residual disease which should be further evaluated.