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Using Cure Models to Estimate the Serial Interval of Tuberculosis With Limited Follow-up.

Authors :
Ma Y
Jenkins HE
Sebastiani P
Ellner JJ
Jones-López EC
Dietze R
Horsburgh CR Jr
White LF
Source :
American journal of epidemiology [Am J Epidemiol] 2020 Nov 02; Vol. 189 (11), pp. 1421-1426.
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

Serial interval (SI), defined as the time between symptom onset in an infector and infectee pair, is commonly used to understand infectious diseases transmission. Slow progression to active disease, as well as the small percentage of individuals who will eventually develop active disease, complicate the estimation of the SI for tuberculosis (TB). In this paper, we showed via simulation studies that when there is credible information on the percentage of those who will develop TB disease following infection, a cure model, first introduced by Boag in 1949, should be used to estimate the SI for TB. This model includes a parameter in the likelihood function to account for the study population being composed of those who will have the event of interest and those who will never have the event. We estimated the SI for TB to be approximately 0.5 years for the United States and Canada (January 2002 to December 2006) and approximately 2.0 years for Brazil (March 2008 to June 2012), which might imply a higher occurrence of reinfection TB in a developing country like Brazil.<br /> (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1476-6256
Volume :
189
Issue :
11
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
American journal of epidemiology
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
32458995
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa090