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Improving Prediction of Age at Menopause Using Multiple Anti-Müllerian Hormone Measurements: the Tehran Lipid-Glucose Study.
- Source :
-
The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism [J Clin Endocrinol Metab] 2020 May 01; Vol. 105 (5). - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Context: Several statistical models were introduced for the prediction of age at menopause using a single measurement of anti-müllerian hormone (AMH); however, individual prediction is challenging and needs to be improved.<br />Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether multiple AMH measurements can improve the prediction of age at menopause.<br />Design: All eligible reproductive-age women (n = 959) were selected from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The serum concentration of AMH was measured at the time of recruitment and twice after that at an average of 6-year intervals. An accelerated failure-time model with Weibull distribution was used to predict age at menopause, using a single AMH value vs a model that included the annual AMH decline rate. The adequacy of these models was assessed using C statistics.<br />Results: The median follow-up period was 14 years, and 529 women reached menopause. Adding the annual decline rate to the model that included single AMH improved the model's discrimination adequacy from 70% (95% CI: 67% to 71%) to 78% (95% CI: 75% to 80%) in terms of C statistics. The median of differences between actual and predicted age at menopause for the first model was -0.48 years and decreased to -0.21 in the model that included the decline rate. The predicted age at menopause for women with the same amount of age-specific AMH but an annual AMH decline rate of 95 percentiles was about one decade lower than in those with a decline rate of 5 percentiles.<br />Conclusion: Prediction of age at menopause could be improved by multiple AMH measurements; it will be useful in identifying women at risk of early menopause.<br /> (© Endocrine Society 2020. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
- Subjects :
- Adult
Age Factors
Anti-Mullerian Hormone analysis
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Iran
Menopause, Premature blood
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Periodicity
Predictive Value of Tests
Primary Ovarian Insufficiency blood
Primary Ovarian Insufficiency diagnosis
Prognosis
Young Adult
Anti-Mullerian Hormone blood
Diagnostic Tests, Routine methods
Menopause blood
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1945-7197
- Volume :
- 105
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 32109280
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1210/clinem/dgaa083